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Anonymous
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Really Am Skuj said 1 month ago

Levins - London Marathon 2019

Preds?

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  • meizner User since:
    Oct 8th, 2013
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    Meizner said 1 month ago

    20700

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  • anonymous Anonymous
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    Anonymous said 1 month ago

    Takes a full minute off his time from STWM.

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  • oldlegs User since:
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    oldlegs said 1 month ago

    2:07 -high.. Hoping for faster. The field is extraordinary.

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    Really Am Skuj said 1 month ago

    Yeah....I'll go with 2:07:55.

    2 sec per km faster than cold, blustery Toronto.

    Predictions are fun.

    (Obviously a whole lot of things have to line up for a good Marathon experience.)

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    Anonymous said 1 month ago

    It would be fun to see how countries rank with respect to their men's and women's national marathon records. Cam will rewrite this for us.

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    Handhills Harriers said 1 month ago

    2:07:30 Fast field will give him a good time. Cheers

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  • petesakes User since:
    Apr 21st, 2014
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    petesakes said 1 month ago

    So far, there seems to be a big gap between the first pack (2:01-2:04), and Cam's likely pace (2:07-2:08). It looks like Callum Hawkins and a few others might be able to run 2:08 pace with Cam. I think he would need people around him to race with to really pull him to a sub 2:08. Maybe he'll get a pacer for 25-30k with a few other runners? I'd be pretty happy if Cam was able to break 2:09 in London at this point. I'll revise my hopes if he runs a tune-up half marathon and breaks the Canadian record for that event. He'll need to be capable of running 1:01 for the half to have a shot at a 2:08:00, I think. Good luck to him! I hope he's able to have a consistent build-up for this race.

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    Really Am Skuj said 1 month ago

    Petesakes got me thinking.

    I'm seriously beginning to revise my thinking on the seemingly important Half Marathon race/effort a few weeks out from the Marathon goal race. (This might require a seperate thread.)

    Back In My Day, it seemed to be all important to race a good 10k just 1-2 weeks before the Marathon. Then the thinking gradually shifted towards a Half Marathon race around 4-6 weeks prior to the Marathon. (The thinking/theory does shift over time!!)

    But isn't that latter persuit a rude interruption in the Marathon build?

    If you "train through" a meh Half Marathon a few weeks out, what have you really accomplished? Will you feel good after a heavy legged, sluggish HM? What will your confidence be after such an effort?

    Alternatively, if you taper well and score a wonderful Half Marathon result just a few weeks out from a Marathon, can you conclude that this was an essential part of a perfect Marathon build? Is your wonderful HM result really an important indication? Are you being tricked? Some would argue that HM results rarely point to precisely what the following Marathon will be.

    I think HM AT MARATHON GOAL PACE in the heavy training prior to a Marathon is important. But I really do think we need to rethink this litmus test of HM in a fantastic result in the month prior as being an important element. (Or the tired HM race at slightly faster than Marathon pace when you really wanted to go faster.)

    I don't see Kipchoge stressing about HM in the weeks prior.

    I'm beginning to think that this is a rude interruption at precisely the wrong time, wether you taper for it or train through it.

    (I may repeat this post in a seperate thread soon.)

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  • anonymous Anonymous
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    Really Am Skuj said 1 month ago

    pursuit not persuit, dammit

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    Really Am Skuj said 1 month ago

    whether not wether. Sorry about typos. I was rushing, clearly.

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  • n User since:
    Dec 9th, 2016
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    N said 1 month ago

    Quoting: Anonymous
    "It would be fun to see how countries rank with respect to their men's and women's national marathon records. Cam will rewrite this for us."


    This exists:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_records_in_the_marathon#Men's_national_records

    Looks like we are 42nd, here's the top 50:

    Country/Territory Time Athlete Date Place Ref
    Kenya 2:01:39 Eliud Kipchoge 16 Sep 2018 Berlin [33]
    Ethiopia 2:03:03 Kenenisa Bekele 25 Sep 2016 Berlin [25]
    Bahrain 2:04:43 El Hassan El-Abbassi 2 Dec 2018 Valencia [18]
    England 2:05:11 Mo Farah 7 Oct 2018 Chicago [24]
    United Kingdom 2:05:11 Mo Farah 7 Oct 2018 Chicago [24]
    Morocco 2:05:27 Jaouad Gharib 26 Apr 2009 London
    United States 2:05:38 Khalid Khannouchi 14 Apr 2002 London Note[nb 32]
    Norway 2:05:48 Sondre Nordstad Moen 3 Dec 2017 Fukuoka [42]
    Japan 2:05:50 Suguru Osako 7 Oct 2018 Chicago [24]
    Brazil 2:06:05 Ronaldo da Costa 20 Sep 1998 Berlin
    Turkey 2:06:10 Kaan Kigen Özbilen 20 Mar 2016 Seoul
    South Africa 2:06:33 Gert Thys 14 Feb 1999 Tokyo
    Uganda 2:06:33 Stephen Kiprotich 22 Feb 2015 Tokyo [49]
    France 2:06:36 Benoît Zwierzchiewski 6 Apr 2003 Paris
    Portugal 2:06:36 António Pinto 16 Apr 2000 London
    Switzerland 2:06:40 Tadesse Abraham 20 Mar 2016 Seoul [48]
    Spain 2:06:52 Julio Rey 23 Apr 2006 Hamburg
    Djibouti 2:07:07 Ahmed Saleh 17 Apr 1988 Rotterdam
    Wales 2:07:13 Steve Jones 20 Oct 1985 Chicago
    Ukraine 2:07:15 Dmytry Baranovskiy 3 Dec 2006 Fukuoka
    Mexico 2:07:19 Andres Espinosa 18 Apr 1994 Boston Note[nb 19]
    Qatar 2:07:19 Mubarak Hassan Shami 15 Apr 2007 Paris
    Belgium 2:07:20 Vincent Rousseau 24 Sep 1995 Berlin
    South Korea 2:07:20 Lee Bong-Ju 13 Feb 2000 Tokyo
    Italy 2:07:22 Stefano Baldini 23 Apr 2006 London
    Eritrea 2:07:27 Yared Asmerom 23 Oct 2011 Chunchon
    Poland 2:07:39 Henryk Szost 4 Mar 2012 Ōtsu [44]
    Tanzania 2:07:46 Augustino Sulle 21 Oct 2018 Toronto [23]
    Australia 2:07:51 Robert de Castella 21 Apr 1986 Boston Note[nb 4]
    People's Republic of China 2:08:15 Ren Longyun 21 Oct 2007 Beijing
    Netherlands 2:08:16 Abdi Nageeye 15 Oct 2017 Amsterdam [39]
    New Zealand 2:08:26 Jake Robertson 4 Mar 2018 Otsu [41]
    Moldova, Republic of 2:08:32 Jaroslav Mushinschi 2 May 2010 Düsseldorf [38]
    Germany 2:08:33 Arne Gabius 25 Oct 2015 Frankfurt [27]
    Mongolia 2:08:50 Ser-Od Bat-Ochir 7 Dec 2014 Fukuoka [40]
    Estonia 2:08:53 Pavel Loskutov 7 Apr 2002 Paris
    Democratic Republic of the Congo 2:08:55 Patrick Tambwé 20 Jun 2004 Mont St. Michel
    Russia 2:09:07 Aleksey Sokolov 29 Oct 2007 Dublin
    Namibia 2:09:08 Luketz Swartbooi 18 Apr 1994 Boston Note[nb 20]
    Ireland 2:09:15 John Treacy 18 Apr 1988 Boston Note[nb 13]
    Scotland 2:09:16 Allister Hutton 21 Apr 1985 London
    Canada 2:09:25 Cam Levins 21 Oct 2018 Toron
    North Korea 2:09:26 Li Jong Hyong 19 Oct 1983 Pyongyang Note[nb 23]
    Denmark 2:09:43 Henrik Jřrgensen 21 Apr 1985 London
    Burundi 2:09:48 Olivier Irabaruta 4 Nov 2018 Porto [21]
    Ecuador 2:09:49 Silvio Guerra 19 Oct 1997 Chicago
    Zimbabwe 2:09:52 Cuthbert Nyasango 11 May 2014 Prague [52]
    Slovakia 2:09:53 Robert Stefko 26 Apr 1998 London Note[nb 28]
    Algeria 2:09:54 Rachid Ziar 7 Apr 2002 Paris
    Rwanda 2:09:55 Mathias Ntawulikuri 16 Apr 2000 London

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  • petesakes User since:
    Apr 21st, 2014
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    petesakes said 1 month ago

    Good point, Really Am Skuj.

    It seems like many top marathoners used to either run a half marathon, WXC or a 10k (less so) prior to their spring marathons. Maybe some runners today just like to see how they feel in a shorter, less stressful racing environment like a tune-up half? Cam ran a 63:XX prior to his 2:09. I don't think he was too worried about the time, as he stated prior to the half he knew he was in better shape in the fall than he was when he ran a 62:xx in the spring. If you can train through a half and run at, or faster than your marathon goal pace, that might give some runners confidence that their training is going well.

    Former xc/marathon greats like Paul Tergat and Carlos Lopes would run hard (usually win) the WXC and then come back a month later to run a super fast half or marathon. I guess it just depends on the athlete. Kipchoge knows his training and how his body adapts to it so well, he seems to have no interest in running a lead-up race. I would love to see what he could actually run for a half marathon when fresh, however , he isn't as interested as I am apparently. :)

    Personally, If I was relatively new to the marathon, I might want to try a half marathon 4-6 weeks beforehand for peace of mind, fluid intake practice and pace verification. If I was an experienced veteran of the event, maybe not so much.

    Of course, there is also the financial aspect to it as well for the pros. If they can run a few shorter races throughout the year, and run fairly well, it can't hurt for their sponsorship as well as bank accounts. That might also provide a bit of insurance, should you end up DNFing the marathon. You don't get too many chances to run fast marathons each year at the professional level.

    Just as an aside, have you noticed the HUGE increase in half marathon races the last decade? If you were a top runner who wants to make some good money and have a longer career, halfs might be the way to go. Sure, the marathons pay more, but they are a crap shoot. A guy could be a 60 min half runner and run 4-6 races/year all over and be competitive. He could also get paid pretty well for pacing a 2:01-2:04 race. That same guy might only be a 2:07-2:08 marathon runner himself on a good day, which doesn't figure to be in the top 5 of most flat paced races these days. Maybe I'm wrong about the monetary side of things. I can think of 5 fast, big city marathons in Germany alone (Berlin, Stuttgart Hannover, Frankfurt and Eindhoven). Spain is similar. I have no idea how much a 2:08 could get you in those races.

    This post was edited by petesakes 1 month ago . 
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    Anonymous said 1 month ago

    Quoting: N
    "This exists:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_records_in_the_marathon#Men's_national_records

    Looks like we are 42nd, here's the top 50:

    Country/Territory Time Athlete Date Place Ref
    Kenya 2:01:39 Eliud Kipchoge 16 Sep 2018 Berlin [33]
    Ethiopia 2:03:03 Kenenisa Bekele 25 Sep 2016 Berlin [25]
    Bahrain 2:04:43 El Hassan El-Abbassi 2 Dec 2018 Valencia [18]
    England 2:05:11 Mo Farah 7 Oct 2018 Chicago [24]
    United Kingdom 2:05:11 Mo Farah 7 Oct 2018 Chicago [24]
    Morocco 2:05:27 Jaouad Gharib 26 Apr 2009 London
    United States 2:05:38 Khalid Khannouchi 14 Apr 2002 London Note[nb 32]
    Norway 2:05:48 Sondre Nordstad Moen 3 Dec 2017 Fukuoka [42]
    Japan 2:05:50 Suguru Osako 7 Oct 2018 Chicago [24]
    Brazil 2:06:05 Ronaldo da Costa 20 Sep 1998 Berlin
    Turkey 2:06:10 Kaan Kigen Özbilen 20 Mar 2016 Seoul
    South Africa 2:06:33 Gert Thys 14 Feb 1999 Tokyo
    Uganda 2:06:33 Stephen Kiprotich 22 Feb 2015 Tokyo [49]
    France 2:06:36 Benoît Zwierzchiewski 6 Apr 2003 Paris
    Portugal 2:06:36 António Pinto 16 Apr 2000 London
    Switzerland 2:06:40 Tadesse Abraham 20 Mar 2016 Seoul [48]
    Spain 2:06:52 Julio Rey 23 Apr 2006 Hamburg
    Djibouti 2:07:07 Ahmed Saleh 17 Apr 1988 Rotterdam
    Wales 2:07:13 Steve Jones 20 Oct 1985 Chicago
    Ukraine 2:07:15 Dmytry Baranovskiy 3 Dec 2006 Fukuoka
    Mexico 2:07:19 Andres Espinosa 18 Apr 1994 Boston Note[nb 19]
    Qatar 2:07:19 Mubarak Hassan Shami 15 Apr 2007 Paris
    Belgium 2:07:20 Vincent Rousseau 24 Sep 1995 Berlin
    South Korea 2:07:20 Lee Bong-Ju 13 Feb 2000 Tokyo
    Italy 2:07:22 Stefano Baldini 23 Apr 2006 London
    Eritrea 2:07:27 Yared Asmerom 23 Oct 2011 Chunchon
    Poland 2:07:39 Henryk Szost 4 Mar 2012 Ōtsu [44]
    Tanzania 2:07:46 Augustino Sulle 21 Oct 2018 Toronto [23]
    Australia 2:07:51 Robert de Castella 21 Apr 1986 Boston Note[nb 4]
    People's Republic of China 2:08:15 Ren Longyun 21 Oct 2007 Beijing
    Netherlands 2:08:16 Abdi Nageeye 15 Oct 2017 Amsterdam [39]
    New Zealand 2:08:26 Jake Robertson 4 Mar 2018 Otsu [41]
    Moldova, Republic of 2:08:32 Jaroslav Mushinschi 2 May 2010 Düsseldorf [38]
    Germany 2:08:33 Arne Gabius 25 Oct 2015 Frankfurt [27]
    Mongolia 2:08:50 Ser-Od Bat-Ochir 7 Dec 2014 Fukuoka [40]
    Estonia 2:08:53 Pavel Loskutov 7 Apr 2002 Paris
    Democratic Republic of the Congo 2:08:55 Patrick Tambwé 20 Jun 2004 Mont St. Michel
    Russia 2:09:07 Aleksey Sokolov 29 Oct 2007 Dublin
    Namibia 2:09:08 Luketz Swartbooi 18 Apr 1994 Boston Note[nb 20]
    Ireland 2:09:15 John Treacy 18 Apr 1988 Boston Note[nb 13]
    Scotland 2:09:16 Allister Hutton 21 Apr 1985 London
    Canada 2:09:25 Cam Levins 21 Oct 2018 Toron
    North Korea 2:09:26 Li Jong Hyong 19 Oct 1983 Pyongyang Note[nb 23]
    Denmark 2:09:43 Henrik Jřrgensen 21 Apr 1985 London
    Burundi 2:09:48 Olivier Irabaruta 4 Nov 2018 Porto [21]
    Ecuador 2:09:49 Silvio Guerra 19 Oct 1997 Chicago
    Zimbabwe 2:09:52 Cuthbert Nyasango 11 May 2014 Prague [52]
    Slovakia 2:09:53 Robert Stefko 26 Apr 1998 London Note[nb 28]
    Algeria 2:09:54 Rachid Ziar 7 Apr 2002 Paris
    Rwanda 2:09:55 Mathias Ntawulikuri 16 Apr 2000 London"



    42nd....is that better or worse than we expected??

    Quick someone analyze the results factoring in population!! I love that rationale.

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  • new-post-last-visitanonymous Anonymous
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    Anonymous said 1 month ago

    Quoting: Anonymous
    "42nd....is that better or worse than we expected??

    Quick someone analyze the results factoring in population!! I love that rationale."


    Looking at NR isn't truly representative given the potential impact by a single outlier.

    If you want a more accurate comparison of which country is 'better' at the marathon than others, look at the 10th (or 20th or 50th) all time performer from each country.

    Turkey as a 2:06 NR, but does anyone think their 50th best marathoner is faster than Canada's?

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